Pundits across the country have weighed in the last couple of weeks about why the Democrats lost the 2024 presidential election so spectacularly. To say the results came as a surprise – to both conservative and liberal voters alike – is an understatement.
However, it’s safe to say that in recent years, the Republican Party has increasingly resonated with middle-class and working-class voters. This reflects a shift in cultural alignment, economic concerns and political strategy. This change marks a stark departure from historical norms where Democrats have overwhelmingly held these demographics.
Republicans as champions of the working class?
There’s debate about shifting political realignment among working-class voters, particularly those without college degrees, and the perceived liberal elites who reside mostly on the coasts and are considered highly educated.
Republican candidates in Donald Trump fashion have tapped into frustrations over globalization and the decline of traditional industries. This was exacerbated by the 2020 pandemic which saw the U.S. economy shut down and devastated by shortages of manufactured products and jobs that disappeared from the U.S. economy decades earlier.
By emphasizing issues like trade reform and economic nationalism, Republicans have attracted voters earning less than $100,000 annually—a group that once leaned Democratic. Trump had better inroads with unions this year, which surprised Democrats.
According to a November 2023 article in Politico, while Republicans traditionally support free-market principles, their 2024 campaign rhetoric shifted to criticism of corporate elites and appeals to middle-class voters who feel left behind by corporate globalization.
Democratic elitism and wokeism
The same Politico article points out the political divide in 2024 was increasingly shaped by education rather than income. College-educated voters are now more likely to vote Democratic, while non-college-educated voters lean Republican. This trend is blurring traditional class distinctions, which allowed the Republican Party to capture cultural and economic grievances of working-class and middle-class individuals.
Many argue that the Democratic Party has alienated traditional blue-collar bases with its focus on progressive policies and urban-focused issues. Cultural issues have further strengthened Republican support among working-class voters. Policies on immigration and opposition to progressive social policies align closely with working-class values. Many in these demographics perceive the Democratic Party’s focus on identity politics and diversity and equity initiatives, such as DEI and CRT, as disconnected from their daily struggles. These cultural concerns were framed as a “common-sense” approach by Republicans and resonated strongly in rural and suburban communities
I think Democrats have been surprised by the backlash against DEI and CRT initiatives that have made up much of their policy narrative over the last four years. It’s not just Republican voters who have been upset by the Democratic Party narrative that because someone believes any of these initiatives are radical or divisive, that makes them racist or unsympathetic or cynical of people different from themselves. Many conservative voters believe themselves respectful of others who have different cultural, religious or sexual identities; however, requiring new standards to embrace pronoun culture, accept biological males into women’s sports and focus on gender identify intrudes on more long-established ideals. Identity politics remains a deeply polarizing topic.
Will this Republican growing representation of middle-class and working-class voters hold through the mid-term election of 2026? It depends on what impact Trump’s economic policies have as they go forward. Economic policies and meeting worker needs are going to continue to be the focus of voters over the next two to four years.
For the Democrats to have a chance at regaining either the House of Senate, they will have to reconcile their past policy efforts regarding social and cultural issues in order to meet these new realities.
Cindy Allen 