Those of us who enjoy memorable movie lines might remember one of the better lines from Talladega Nights when Ricky Bobby’s dad tells him, “If you’re not first, you’re last.”
However, in the GOP primary – which pollsters insist is firmly in former President Donald Trump’s grip – second place just might be the sweet spot that can get the troubled Republican Party out of its Trump problem.
Right now, there are several viable candidates jockeying for that 2nd-place position, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and current South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Those three seem to have raised the most amount of money than the other big-name candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
While many pundits believe the forgone conclusion is that the 2024 presidential race will be a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden, there are a few of us hopeful conservatives who some way, somehow, hope a more reasonable and centered candidate will emerge as the GOP nominee.
What is the Trump problem? Well, where to begin. But, in summary, the Trump problem includes the many indictments he is facing, as well as the specter of the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection (or riot as some Trump hardliners insist on calling it) that put our nation’s democracy into chaos. There are also Trump’s many troubling comments regarding current events with the Ukraine-Russia war and now the Hamas-Israeli war. Those are a just a few issues.
Many Republicans who have been Trump supporters are quietly turning away from him in hopes of finding a candidate they can support. A Pew poll this summer found 63% of Americans of all political affiliations have an unfavorable opinion of Trump – an increase from 60% last year.
At 66%, the majority of those who identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning still view the former president in a favorable light, but that is 9 percentage points lower than last July’s 75%.
As we know with polls, in the past few elections they have been seriously unreliable. I’m not convinced Trump has the stronghold the polls say he does. So, that has me speculating that it is possible for one of those three candidates mentioned above to seriously challenge Trump for the nomination.
Serious GOP voters know that the objective of the 2024 Republican presidential election is to win it. Quite frankly, Trump’s chance of beating Joe Biden is not ensured, even though the current president is not seen favorably by many in his own party.
That’s why the right GOP candidate, in my opinion, has a good chance at winning the presidential election for the Republicans.
I have already written that Nikki Haley seems to have the best resume to do so. She has been strong, articulate and confident in the two debates and on the campaign trail. She has a good political track record, and she understands current world affairs better than the other GOP contenders.
She seems to toe the line on the Republicans’ pro-life stance; however, she also understands the many nuances regarding the abortion issue that her male counterparts either don’t understand or simply choose to ignore. Let’s face it, abortion will be on the ballot in 2024.
While the Republican Party has a pro-life platform, not all Republican women voters share this viewpoint. There are Republican women who believe that a woman should have the right to make decisions about her own body, including the decision to have an abortion. They also know that there is much more to the issue that has to do with having access to reproductive health-care options than simply “choosing” to end a pregnancy.
The GOP has to nominate a candidate who can get support from Democrats and Independents. Trump has less of a chance in getting that support in a general election.
The women’s vote in the U.S. is a significant and powerful demographic. Women constitute a majority of eligible voters in the U.S. Suburban women have been considered key swing voters in various elections. There are many women’s organizations and advocacy groups that are helping boost influence of the women’s vote, including bipartisan advocacy groups wanting to ensure women have reproductive healthcare options.
If a female candidate like Haley were to emerge as the GOP nominee, it would have the potential to energize and mobilize women voters across the political spectrum.
So, to quote another famous movie, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Yes, I think there is. However, it will take GOP women learning more about Haley, then coming out in droves to vote in their own interests.
Cindy Allen 